How The Strange Season Broke the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Mold.
Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.
In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.
However this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite candidates.
Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.
The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.
Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.
During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal season!
Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.
Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.
The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.
Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3
Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.
Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.
Still
