Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
