Within the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.
The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.
He holds the view that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.
Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden additional military gambits.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.
Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance
The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.
It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.
